🏀 An Essay on the Current State of Louisville Basketball

• Louisville is in the midst of a historically dreadful season in which they currently sit at 2-17
• The Louisville fan base is in two separate camps. One camp would say let’s have a little patience, while the other camp is firmly planted in the let’s move on.
• Other rebuilding programs experiencing fast success after scandal and NCAA issues aren’t doing the struggling Cards any favors

Patience is the key……….. I think?

Or a virtue whatever the person that gave us that cliche said. I honestly don’t know anymore. The only thing i can say with 100% certainty is that this year’s version of the Louisville Cardinals are testing all the patience, faith, common sense, stamina. This list could go on and on and on. Let’s go back to March the 18^th, 2022. The sun was shining. The birds were singing. Spring was on the horizon.  It seemed as if the sun was once again going to shine again and the Louisville Men’s Basketball Program would be put back on the path to prominence with the introduction of one Kenny Payne as the 23^rd head coach of the Louisville Cardinals. There were dignitaries from state and local governments, players from the past & present. I mean we had the Governor of the Commonwealth of Kentucky stop by and tell us about how KP would bring stability. One quote from Governor Beshear that particularly stood out was that “Rarely do you see a hire so good, even the rival coach says it was the right move.” Lot of Louisville fans may not give a damn on what Cal thinks, but I digress. Louisville has had a storied past to say the least. A past that includes three national championships. (2013 did happen and we witnessed that with our own eyes. IDC what the NCAA or a hater gotta say)

As the kids would say Louisville is currently “down bad”

A whole host of teams playing well during the beginning of their respective “rebuilds” is placing a lot of heat on Coach Payne and the struggling Cardinals

Although I think circumstances are different, when you look at Kansas State, LSU, and Missouri playing well in the first season of respective rebuilds has done no favors for the Cards. The three teams mentioned, hit the transfer portal and instantly upgraded rosters. In LSU’s case their entire team came from the transfer portal.That’s part of the reason Louisville’s struggles this season hurt so much. Certain teams with issues were able to hit the portal and instantly improve their respective teams. The aforementioned teams play with passion, they play fun, tough nosed team basketball. They play with the spirit and determination that Coach Payne is pleading for his team to play with.  This has led to a large section of the fan base questioning if Kenny Payne was necessarily the correct hire to lead this rebuild.  I personally feel that the comparisons to those three particular programs aren’t necessarily fair. McMahon, and Dennis Gates(Missouri) have head coaching experience, and have experience making decisions from the lead chair. I feel that the more apt comparisons for Coach Payne would be Jerome Tang 1st time HC at Kansas State who was a long time assistant coach under Scott Drew at Baylor and Tommy Lloyd of Arizona who spent 20 years helping Mark Few build Gonzaga into a perennial Final Four contender. Those comparisons don’t do Coach Payne and the Cards any favors either, because both programs are rolling and currently reside in the top 25. 

Can there be improvement without wins?

Don’t answer that. The question is rhetorical, but in major college basketball the masses are going to say no.  I’m not sure I agree. 

Most would say no. Others would say increased energy, decreased turnovers and the emergence of redshirt Freshman Mike James would indicate that the lightbulbs do seem to be flickering. Some may say improvement without wins are hollow and “moral victories” but improvement is improvement. (At least in my eyes anyway) Can the improvement lead to more wins as Louisville heads down the back stretch of the season? ABSOLUTELY. There have been several upsets in the first half of the college season, and outside of the top 10, there seems to be loads of parity. Most would say that if the improvement continues, Louisville will indeed put themselves in a position to add a few more wins to their total before the 2022-2023 season comes to an end. 

I would be lying if I said I thought it was going to be THIS UGLY. I personally pictured us hovering around .500 and being an NIT team, and jumping back into the national conversation NEXT SEASON. When Kenny said at his opening press conference and I’m paraphrasing here, I need you with me in the good and the bad I felt like he was trying to lower expectations. I didn’t dream that “hard” he was referring to 2-17 with nine straight losses in a row to start the season, and now currently in the middle of a eight-game losing streak with far too few flashes of hope. In the midst of this losing streak is where the improved play and energy has come, but the things that plague this team often rear their ugly heads at the most inopportune times, and halt runs, and essentially ruin the team’s chances of getting wins

After the Clemson and Pitt games in which Louisville did some decent things but gave up runs midway through the first halvles and would eventually lose both games by double digits, Coach Payne said, “I wish we could put two halves together and see where we are.” Same coach. Same.

Where do the Cards go from here?

“You are what your record says you are”

Bill Parcells

The answer to this question is  what will determine the long term viability of Coach Payne and his staff. As I mentioned earlier, the success of other programs in similar(but different) circumstances in the opening stages of their respective rebuilds has done no favors for Payne and his struggling Cards. To come into a top 10 college basketball program, with a history of excellence and exciting play, be 2-17 in your inaugural season while having moments of ABSOLUTELY ABYSMAL basketball and expect the Louisville fans to have patience of Job is probably akin to asking them to root for the boys down the road that wear blue. Look, I get it. It’s disappointing to lose. Disappointing to the team, disappointing to the fans and I know it has to wear on this staff.  Losing games that you essentially were in has to be a psychological blow. Even though most coaches will say they try to ignore the chatter, “focus on the work” and all the other coach speak,  I’m sure they see the rumblings out there on Al Gore’s internet. If they don’t, their families do. I know the players see it. I won’t dignify the foolishness of some fans, but as the losses pile up and the struggles mount and the losses pile up folks are beginning to wonder very loudly and publicly if Payne and his staff are in over their heads. 

FOR NOW, I am going to remain calm. I for one am going TRY to lean on the calmness and the quiet confidence of Coach Payne to lead Louisville Basketball through these turbulent seas. Each and every game with the exception of the Maui trip and maybe the second half of the Kentucky & UNC games the Cardinals have had stretches of good basketball. They’ve had good scouts, and good plans but have not yet reaped the benefits of said good stretches. Glimpses of the light bulbs starting to come on. However these flashes are rarely sustained, which is why Louisville currently sits at 2-17.

With what’s gone on at Louisville for the past half decade or more, I think that at this moment, at this time Louisville needs calm and steady leadership. I personally would like to see what Coach Payne and this staff can do in a full recruiting cycle, without the NCAA, FBI, IARP and the rest of the alphabet gang setting up shop on campus. With the IARP ruling in November that Louisville will not receive any post season penalties going forward, it should really be all systems go this off season.

With that being said, it should be noted that Louisville AD Josh Heird has expressed support for Payne and his staff and feels that they should be given time to turn around the dumpster fire they willingly walked into. That’s not to say that they are blameless in this historically bad season. He was painstakingly slow in hiring his staff. People were nervous about the backcourt. They were obviously right to worry. We have approximately 1.5 ball handlers depending on the game. He went after names in the portal. For whatever reason, they chose to go elsewhere. He should’ve had a backup plan. That’s bad planning. He’s got to take the heat for that. Between graduation and transfer departures Louisville lost 8 and only took back 3.  There were probably other names in the portal that would’ve crawled to campus for an opportunity to play at Louisville. A couple of those names probably lead to a more balanced roster. A more balanced roster probably leads to not being 2-17. I don’t know what the exact record would be, but one could surmise that Louisville would be further along than they are currently. By most metrics Louisville is the absolute worst team in the P5. Their record would indicate that’s an accurate representation of what we are seeing. With the 2023 class being all but signed, sealed and delivered, it is paramount that this staff address upgrading this roster though the JUCO ranks and in the portal. You can definitely find diamonds in the rough and ACC & P5 talent through those channels, but these are not the recruiting waters we were told we would be swimming in when Coach Payne was announced. This has also led to more concern within the fan base. 

“I can promise you, I don’t go home satisfied with, ‘We’re getting better.”

Josh Heird

During his most recent media availability Heird confirmed that he has been a presence in the locker room and at practices and that even with the unprecedented struggles, he feels that Kenny Payne and his staff are the right ones to lead the Louisville Basketball program into the future.  He said,  “I can promise you, I don’t go home satisfied with, ‘We’re getting better.’ And Kenny even more so than me. We understand the expectations in this program. And the expectation is to win a lot of basketball games and compete at an extremely high level,” Heird said Friday. “… As far as supporting Kenny, I mean, that’s, it’s extremely important to me. And until he does something that says, hey, I don’t think he should be our basketball coach, I’m going to support him 110%. But I can promise you he hasn’t done one thing that has shown me that he shouldn’t be our basketball coach. Now, does that mean that any of us are satisfied with two wins? Absolutely not. It’s extremely frustrating. I know, it’s frustrating to Kenny, it’s frustrating to staff, and it’s frustrating to the student athletes.”

There you have it. The man whose job is dependent on the success of the coaches he hires, has voiced his support for Coach Payne and his staff. I know, I know. What else is he supposed to say? Kenny Payne is his first major hire as AD and oftentimes, athletic directors don’t get too many chances for redos if they miss on major hires. So their successes and failures are succinctly intertwined. 

Louisville Basketball Isn’t Louisville Basketball Right Now

It’s fair to say at this point, that this staff has not given the Louisville faithful much hope that they have what it takes to get this thing figured out. Every good stretch of basketball seems to be interrupted by scoring droughts, mind numbing turnovers, and inconsistent energy and lackadaisical effort. That simply isn’t good enough and it DAMN SURE ain’t the Louisville basketball we’ve all come to know love and EXPECT.  To be fair though, Louisville basketball hasn’t been Louisville Basketball for a while now it seems. Scandals have decimated the once storied program. The Year of the Cardinal (2013) might as well have been in the 90s.  Louisville is struggling no doubt about it. NFL Hall of Fame Head Coach Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are.” Well I don’t have to tell you Louisville’s record says they stink and that this staff isn’t doing a good job. You hear it every time you turn on the radio, or every time you turn on the television to watch the game, or every time you log on to live tweet with your pals from the twitter streets during games. It’s beating a dead horse at this point.  Even though by some metrics and numbers Louisville IS improving, folks simply don’t want to hear that noise  when you’re currently 2-17. Improvement talk can’t make it into these spaces because Your record is 2-17.  That calls for nuance. There’s no room for nuance when you’re 2-17. It’s either win, or we’ll find someone that will. I remain confident FOR NOW in believing that this staff is up to the challenge. The downfall didn’t happen in a season, and it will probably take more than one season to turn it around. How they perform the rest of the season and how the staff addresses team deficiencies in the transfer portal will be critical in giving the fans some semblance of hope.

Hope for the future could help the fans weather this current storm, and it’s on Coach Payne and the Louisville Basketball team to give them some. 

I’m Jovan Bell and I approve this message.